One possible policy option for countries concerned about declining or aging populations is replacement migration – allowing or even encouraging international migration in order to counteract decline and aging of native populations. In the past two decades, net international migration into the Nordic region has been a much larger contributor to population growth than natural increase. This policy brief explores the likely demographic contribution of migration to population growth in the Nordic countries in the future and the extent that it could compensate for population decline or aging.

The population of a country grows or declines as a result of thecombination of two trends. One is natural increase, the difference between the number of births and deaths. A number of European countries have been experiencing ‘negative naturalincrease’ (i.e. more deaths than births) because women havehad fertility rates well below two children per woman and olderage structures. In recent decades, the Nordic countries have had positive natural increase as a result of having relatively higher fertility rates of just below two children per woman and relatively younger age structures.